Desktop Pipeline | Ballmer Analyzes Microsoft's One Big Vista Mistake

Desktop Pipeline | Ballmer Analyzes Microsoft's One Big Vista Mistake

So now Ballmer is admitting what has been clear for some time - they bit off more than they could chew. Vista was originally intended to be this supernova of an "update" - a fundamentally new OS, built upon a new file-system and with tons of innovative features. So much for that dream - now they're saddled with a scaled-back, still-complicated OS that has been delayed and delayed and, according to the blogosphere, is still not quite ready for prime time. Aside from the fact that they're MS and rule the corporate desktop, how is Vista going to drive new business to them?

The answer: It's not. New business is forced to go with them. But their new strategy of incrementally updating the OS from now on, as stated by Ballmer, is exactly what Apple has been doing for years now with OS X. The initial release was a buggy, unusable mess for anyone but beta testers with time and patience, but with each successive update they've improved it until it became Tiger, which is arguably one of the best consumer OS's ever. The difference is this: Apple based their major "supernova" announcement around a fundamentally new system - BSD-based, new interface, lots and lots of potential for greater innovation because of the underlying technology, not just faster hardware. Whereas Vista has been systematically ditching the supernova-worthy features - WinFS being the biggest - and while I've admittedly not used it, it seems like it will just be "Windows More", not "Windows Reinvented", and the more is possible mainly because of steeper hardware requirements, which conveniently boosts profits for the entire chain.

If I were MS, I would have pushed WinFS and Aero out the door at all costs with Vista, even if it meant scaling back other core features. At least this would have been the fundamentally new platform for launching a new generation of Windows. Now what we may be "given" in 1Q2007 is a barely-out-of-beta Windows, heavier but not really new.